Qualitative development scenario planning of medical science education in Iran

Background: Futures study is a science that, given changes in society, identifies future trends for making appropriate and practical decisions. Universities benefit from futures study research to improve their efficiency and make effective decisions. This is increasingly seen in medical sciences universities, which are responsible for public and specialized health education, and their quality development should be addressed. The purpose of this study was to identify components and key indicators of the qualitative development of medical sciences education and writing scenarios based on these.

Methods: The present study is a mixed methods study carried out in the medical universities of Iran in 2018-2019. In this qualitative approach, the components and indicators of qualitative development of medical sciences education were identified by the classical Delphi method according to targeted sampling from 10 experts with content analysis that was identified and coded. Following the qualitative portion, a quantitative approach using Scenario Wizards software was used to design robust scenarios.

Results: In all, 13 components and 48 indicators were identified in the qualitative development of medical sciences education from which robust scenarios can be considered for futures study,including optimistic, intermediary, and pessimistic scenarios.

Conclusion: These results indicate how using each of the medical sciences education’s qualitative development components and indicators can lead medical sciences universities to consider favorable and unfavorable futures for planning and direction. Recognizing correct components and drawing scenarios for desired futures is essential.