A Modular Real-time Tidal Prediction Model based on Grey-GMDH Neural Network

Real-time prediction of tidal level is of great significance for activities of human beings in the fields of marine and coastal engineering. However, the disturbance factors of tidal level are very intricate, which deteriorate the tidal prediction accuracy. To improve the accuracy of real-time tidal-level prediction, a modular real-time tidal-level prediction approach is proposed based on the grey group method of data handling (Grey-GMDH) neural network. The modular model is composed of astronomical tide parts caused by celestial bodies’ movement and the nonastronomical tide parts caused by various meteorological and other environmental factors. The GMDH is a polynomial network that is commonly used in prediction and pattern recognition. However, GMDH is sensitive to nondeterministic time series, which would result in low accuracy of prediction. In this study, the grey prediction theory is introduced into the GMDH prediction model to alleviate the unfavorable effects of uncertainty caused by various environmental factors and the adverse effects caused thereby on the prediction accuracy. In this study of tidal prediction, the Grey-GMDH model is used to predict the nonastronomical tide parts, whereas the conventional harmonic analysis model is used to predict the astronomical tide parts. The final prediction result is achieved by combining the estimation outputs of the harmonious analysis model and the Grey-GMDH model. Measured tidal-level data of San Diego tidal station is selected as the testing database. Simulation and experimental results confirm that the proposed approach can achieve real-time predictions for tidal level with high accuracy, satisfactory convergence and stability.